Math 489/889 Stochastic Processes and Advanced Mathematical Finance Homework 10 Steve Dunbar Due Wednesday, December 8, 2010
<Text-field style="Heading 1" layout="Heading 1">Problem 1</Text-field> <Text-field style="Text" layout="Heading 1"> Simulate the solution of the stochastic differential equation dX(t) = X(t)dt + 2*X(t)*dW on the interval [0, 1] with initial condition X (0) = 1 and step size dt = 1/10. Put your calculations in a table as done in the lesson. Include a record of your coin flips. Note that below I using a freshly generated sum of 10 coin flips in each time step of 1/10. 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<Text-field style="Heading 1" layout="Heading 1">Problem 2</Text-field> Find the solution of the stochastic differential equation dX(t) = X(t) dt + 2 X(t) dW Solution: Guess a solution of the form 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 where LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYmLUkjbWlHRiQ2I1EhRictRiM2JC1GLDYlUSJhRicvJSdpdGFsaWNHUSV0cnVlRicvJSxtYXRodmFyaWFudEdRJ2l0YWxpY0YnL0Y4USdub3JtYWxGJ0YrRjo= and LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYmLUkjbWlHRiQ2I1EhRictRiM2JC1GLDYlUSJiRicvJSdpdGFsaWNHUSV0cnVlRicvJSxtYXRodmFyaWFudEdRJ2l0YWxpY0YnL0Y4USdub3JtYWxGJ0YrRjo= are parameters to be determined. Then by Ito's formula dX = (a + b^2/2) X dt + b X dW so matching coefficients 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 and b = 2, so a = -1. The solution 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.
<Text-field style="Heading 1" layout="Heading 1">Problem 3</Text-field> Find the mode (the value of the independent variable with the highest probability) of the lognormal probability density function. (Use parameters \316\274 and \317\203.) LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYmLUkjbWlHRiQ2JVEocmVzdGFydEYnLyUnaXRhbGljR1EldHJ1ZUYnLyUsbWF0aHZhcmlhbnRHUSdpdGFsaWNGJy1JI21vR0YkNi1RIjtGJy9GM1Enbm9ybWFsRicvJSZmZW5jZUdRJmZhbHNlRicvJSpzZXBhcmF0b3JHRjEvJSlzdHJldGNoeUdGPS8lKnN5bW1ldHJpY0dGPS8lKGxhcmdlb3BHRj0vJS5tb3ZhYmxlbGltaXRzR0Y9LyUnYWNjZW50R0Y9LyUnbHNwYWNlR1EmMC4wZW1GJy8lJ3JzcGFjZUdRLDAuMjc3Nzc3OGVtRicvJStleGVjdXRhYmxlR0Y9Rjk= LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYlLUkjbWlHRiQ2JVEld2l0aEYnLyUnaXRhbGljR1EldHJ1ZUYnLyUsbWF0aHZhcmlhbnRHUSdpdGFsaWNGJy1JKG1mZW5jZWRHRiQ2JC1GIzYjLUYsNiVRK1N0YXRpc3RpY3NGJ0YvRjIvRjNRJ25vcm1hbEYnLUkjbW9HRiQ2LVEiOkYnRj0vJSZmZW5jZUdRJmZhbHNlRicvJSpzZXBhcmF0b3JHRkUvJSlzdHJldGNoeUdGRS8lKnN5bW1ldHJpY0dGRS8lKGxhcmdlb3BHRkUvJS5tb3ZhYmxlbGltaXRzR0ZFLyUnYWNjZW50R0ZFLyUnbHNwYWNlR1EsMC4yNzc3Nzc4ZW1GJy8lJ3JzcGFjZUdGVA== print(); # input placeholder 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 Note very carefully that Maple uses different parameters than I do! I define the lognormal in terms of the parameters \316\274 and \317\203^2, but Maple uses the parameters \316\274 and \317\203 to define the same distribution. So be careful to get the distribution you really want! 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 LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder 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 LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder 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 LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder LUkkZXhwRzYkJSpwcm90ZWN0ZWRHSShfc3lzbGliRzYiNiMsJkkjbXVHRiciIiIqJClJJnNpZ21hR0YnIiIjRishIiI= LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYjLUkjbWlHRiQ2I1EhRic=
<Text-field style="Heading 1" layout="Heading 1">Problem 4</Text-field> Suppose you buy a stock (or more properly an index fund) whose value LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYmLUkjbWlHRiQ2I1EhRictRiM2JkYrLUYjNiYtRiw2JVEiU0YnLyUnaXRhbGljR1EldHJ1ZUYnLyUsbWF0aHZhcmlhbnRHUSdpdGFsaWNGJy1JI21vR0YkNi1RMCZBcHBseUZ1bmN0aW9uO0YnL0Y6USdub3JtYWxGJy8lJmZlbmNlR1EmZmFsc2VGJy8lKnNlcGFyYXRvckdGRC8lKXN0cmV0Y2h5R0ZELyUqc3ltbWV0cmljR0ZELyUobGFyZ2VvcEdGRC8lLm1vdmFibGVsaW1pdHNHRkQvJSdhY2NlbnRHRkQvJSdsc3BhY2VHUSYwLjBlbUYnLyUncnNwYWNlR0ZTLUkobWZlbmNlZEdGJDYkLUYjNiQtRiw2JVEidEYnRjZGOUZARkBGQEYrRkBGK0ZA is described by the stochastic differential equation 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 corresponding to a zero compounded growth and pure market fluctuations proportional to the stock value. What are your chances to double your money? 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# input placeholder KiYsJiIiIkYkKUkiQUc2IiwmRiRGJComLCYqJiIiI0YkSSNtdUdGJ0YkRiQqJClJJnNpZ21hR0YnRixGJCEiIkYkRi9GMUYxRjFGJCwmKUkiQkdGJ0YoRiRGJUYxRjE= LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYuLUkjbWlHRiQ2JVEnJiM5NTY7RicvJSdpdGFsaWNHUSZmYWxzZUYnLyUsbWF0aHZhcmlhbnRHUSdub3JtYWxGJy1JI21vR0YkNi1RIn5GJ0YyLyUmZmVuY2VHRjEvJSpzZXBhcmF0b3JHRjEvJSlzdHJldGNoeUdGMS8lKnN5bW1ldHJpY0dGMS8lKGxhcmdlb3BHRjEvJS5tb3ZhYmxlbGltaXRzR0YxLyUnYWNjZW50R0YxLyUnbHNwYWNlR1EmMC4wZW1GJy8lJ3JzcGFjZUdGSS1GNjYtUSomY29sb25lcTtGJ0YyRjlGO0Y9Rj9GQUZDRkUvRkhRLDAuMjc3Nzc3OGVtRicvRktGUEY1LUY2Ni1RKiZ1bWludXMwO0YnRjJGOUY7Rj1GP0ZBRkNGRS9GSFEsMC4yMjIyMjIyZW1GJy9GS0ZWLUkmbWZyYWNHRiQ2KC1JJW1zdXBHRiQ2JS1GLDYlUScmIzk2MztGJ0YvRjItRiM2Jy1JI21uR0YkNiRRIjJGJ0YyL0YwUSV0cnVlRicvJStleGVjdXRhYmxlR0YxLyUwZm9udF9zdHlsZV9uYW1lR1EoMkR+TWF0aEYnL0YzUSdpdGFsaWNGJy8lMXN1cGVyc2NyaXB0c2hpZnRHUSIwRidGW28vJS5saW5ldGhpY2tuZXNzR1EiMUYnLyUrZGVub21hbGlnbkdRJ2NlbnRlckYnLyUpbnVtYWxpZ25HRmJwLyUpYmV2ZWxsZWRHRjEtRjY2LVEiO0YnRjJGOS9GPEZib0Y9Rj9GQUZDRkVGR0ZRLUknbXNwYWNlR0YkNiYvJSdoZWlnaHRHUSYwLjBleEYnLyUmd2lkdGhHRkkvJSZkZXB0aEdGYHEvJSpsaW5lYnJlYWtHUShuZXdsaW5lRictRlxxNiZGXnFGYXFGY3EvRmZxUSVhdXRvRictRiw2I1EhRidGY29GMg== LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder LCQqJiMiIiIiIiNGJSlJJnNpZ21hRzYiRiZGJSEiIg== 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 LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder IiIh 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 LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder IiIj LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYmLUkjbWlHRiQ2JVE0Z2FtYmxlcnNydWluZm9ybXVsYUYnLyUnaXRhbGljR1EldHJ1ZUYnLyUsbWF0aHZhcmlhbnRHUSdpdGFsaWNGJy1JI21vR0YkNi1RIjtGJy9GM1Enbm9ybWFsRicvJSZmZW5jZUdRJmZhbHNlRicvJSpzZXBhcmF0b3JHRjEvJSlzdHJldGNoeUdGPS8lKnN5bW1ldHJpY0dGPS8lKGxhcmdlb3BHRj0vJS5tb3ZhYmxlbGltaXRzR0Y9LyUnYWNjZW50R0Y9LyUnbHNwYWNlR1EmMC4wZW1GJy8lJ3JzcGFjZUdRLDAuMjc3Nzc3OGVtRicvJStleGVjdXRhYmxlR0Y9Rjk= LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder IyIiIiIiKQ== Suppose you buy a stock (or more properly an index fund) whose value LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYmLUkjbWlHRiQ2I1EhRictRiM2JkYrLUYjNiYtRiw2JVEiU0YnLyUnaXRhbGljR1EldHJ1ZUYnLyUsbWF0aHZhcmlhbnRHUSdpdGFsaWNGJy1JI21vR0YkNi1RMCZBcHBseUZ1bmN0aW9uO0YnL0Y6USdub3JtYWxGJy8lJmZlbmNlR1EmZmFsc2VGJy8lKnNlcGFyYXRvckdGRC8lKXN0cmV0Y2h5R0ZELyUqc3ltbWV0cmljR0ZELyUobGFyZ2VvcEdGRC8lLm1vdmFibGVsaW1pdHNHRkQvJSdhY2NlbnRHRkQvJSdsc3BhY2VHUSYwLjBlbUYnLyUncnNwYWNlR0ZTLUkobWZlbmNlZEdGJDYkLUYjNiQtRiw2JVEidEYnRjZGOUZARkBGQEYrRkBGK0ZA is described by the stochastic differential equation 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 corresponding to a non-zero compounded growth and pure market fluctuations proportional to the stock value and the two parameter values are coincidentally connected in their value. What are your chances to double your money? 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 LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder IiIh IiIh IiIj LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYmLUkjbWlHRiQ2JVE0Z2FtYmxlcnNydWluZm9ybXVsYUYnLyUnaXRhbGljR1EldHJ1ZUYnLyUsbWF0aHZhcmlhbnRHUSdpdGFsaWNGJy1JI21vR0YkNi1RIjtGJy9GM1Enbm9ybWFsRicvJSZmZW5jZUdRJmZhbHNlRicvJSpzZXBhcmF0b3JHRjEvJSlzdHJldGNoeUdGPS8lKnN5bW1ldHJpY0dGPS8lKGxhcmdlb3BHRj0vJS5tb3ZhYmxlbGltaXRzR0Y9LyUnYWNjZW50R0Y9LyUnbHNwYWNlR1EmMC4wZW1GJy8lJ3JzcGFjZUdRLDAuMjc3Nzc3OGVtRicvJStleGVjdXRhYmxlR0Y9Rjk= LUkjbWlHNiMvSSttb2R1bGVuYW1lRzYiSSxUeXBlc2V0dGluZ0dJKF9zeXNsaWJHRic2JVE1b3V0cHV0fnJlZGlyZWN0ZWQuLi5GJy8lJ2l0YWxpY0dRJXRydWVGJy8lLG1hdGh2YXJpYW50R1EnaXRhbGljRic= print(); # input placeholder IyIiIiIiJQ== LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYjLUkjbWlHRiQ2I1EhRic=
LUklbXJvd0c2Iy9JK21vZHVsZW5hbWVHNiJJLFR5cGVzZXR0aW5nR0koX3N5c2xpYkdGJzYjLUkjbWlHRiQ2I1EhRic=